Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2010-11


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 San Diego St. 100.0%   2   30 - 2 14 - 2 30 - 2 14 - 2 +16.3      +8.1 11 +8.2 8 62.8 292 +22.8 3 +19.2 2
12 BYU 100.0%   2   29 - 4 14 - 2 29 - 4 14 - 2 +16.1      +8.1 10 +7.9 13 79.4 17 +18.4 7 +19.3 1
26 UNLV 99.5%   7   24 - 8 11 - 5 24 - 8 11 - 5 +12.8      +6.3 27 +6.4 23 70.7 105 +13.5 24 +12.2 3
46 New Mexico 17.7%   20 - 12 8 - 8 20 - 12 8 - 8 +10.2      +5.1 46 +5.1 45 67.2 195 +8.1 65 +6.7 5
72 Colorado St. 10.4%   18 - 12 9 - 7 18 - 12 9 - 7 +7.0      +3.5 73 +3.5 73 68.8 151 +7.9 67 +9.2 4
108 Air Force 0.0%   14 - 14 6 - 10 14 - 14 6 - 10 +3.5      +1.8 108 +1.7 112 58.2 332 +4.3 105 +3.9 7
137 Utah 0.0%   12 - 18 6 - 10 12 - 18 6 - 10 +2.0      +0.9 139 +1.0 136 73.4 55 +2.7 130 +4.2 6
160 TCU 0.0%   11 - 22 1 - 15 11 - 22 1 - 15 +0.3      +0.2 161 +0.2 161 69.1 148 -1.8 193 -10.0 9
224 Wyoming 0.0%   8 - 21 3 - 13 8 - 21 3 - 13 -3.3      -1.7 225 -1.6 221 68.4 157 -4.5 239 -1.4 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
San Diego St. 1.0 100.0
BYU 1.0 100.0
UNLV 3.0 100.0
New Mexico 5.0 100.0
Colorado St. 4.0 100.0
Air Force 6.0 100.0
Utah 6.0 100.0
TCU 9.0 100.0
Wyoming 8.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
San Diego St. 14 - 2 100.0
BYU 14 - 2 100.0
UNLV 11 - 5 100.0
New Mexico 8 - 8 100.0
Colorado St. 9 - 7 100.0
Air Force 6 - 10 100.0
Utah 6 - 10 100.0
TCU 1 - 15 100.0
Wyoming 3 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0
BYU 100.0% 100.0
UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado St.
Air Force
Utah
TCU
Wyoming


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   39.4 46.9 12.3 1.5 0.0
BYU 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   21.5 45.1 26.5 6.8 0.2 100.0%
UNLV 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 7   0.1 8.4 31.9 29.6 18.3 9.0 2.1 0.2 0.5 99.5%
New Mexico 17.7% 0.0% 17.7% 0.0 0.4 15.4 1.9 82.3 17.7%
Colorado St. 10.4% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0 0.2 8.5 1.7 89.6 10.4%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
TCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.6% 62.6% 35.8% 17.2% 7.9% 3.3%
BYU 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 90.1% 60.0% 33.2% 15.5% 6.9% 2.9%
UNLV 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 58.6% 21.2% 8.8% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3%
New Mexico 17.7% 16.4% 10.0% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 10.4% 9.9% 4.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.3 0.4 73.3 24.8 1.6
1st Round 100.0% 3.1 0.5 85.4 13.8 0.3
2nd Round 99.7% 2.5 0.4 6.6 41.8 48.8 2.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 89.4% 1.5 10.6 40.4 41.9 7.0 0.1
Elite Eight 62.4% 0.8 37.6 47.3 14.3 0.7
Final Four 33.1% 0.4 66.9 30.5 2.6 0.0
Final Game 15.4% 0.2 84.6 15.1 0.3
Champion 6.5% 0.1 93.5 6.5